I still think Michigan goes to a bowl game. Here we go.
They have to win at least seven games, most likely, to do this, since all 7-5 teams have to be taken over all 6-6 teams (negating Michigan's inevitable ratings/attendance advantage over all the likely middle-of-the-pack Big Ten teams). So out of the remaining nine games, we have to find six wins.
Michigan's offense still looked good against Notre Dame when it wasn't committing a freakish amount of turnovers--a phenomenon that is not likely to persist, at least not like that. The defense still looked good, apart from a couple blown big plays. Like Jamie Samuelsen, I think Michigan beats Notre Dame if they play again. Moreover, I think Michigan's offensive is getting a lot better every week. We've found our QB in Steven Threet and our RB in Sam McGuffie, and our other pint-sized freshman slot lightning bolt, Terrance Robinson, is expected back within the next few games after spending the first three sidelined.
I think I can chalk up Northwestern, Purdue, Toledo, and Minnesota as likely victories, so let's do that. Gets us to five, with five games left to consider. Despite AN Ohio State University's troubles, I think we can still mark our game at Ohio Stadium with a big L. Same with Penn State, who, although they've only really played weaklings so far, looks very good, plays us at home, and has long-, LONG-awaited revenge on their minds. So that leaves three games with two necessary wins: Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Illinois. All three games are at home.
Of the three, Wisconsin seems like the least likely victory. We play them next--giving us less improvement time--and they seem to be the best of the three. They have a veteran RB and a good, veteran line, as well as a great TE. Our best chance is to put up a lot of points early and force their first-year QB to pass...but even with that, I still don't see it. But nothing's impossible.
Michigan State boasts a fantastic RB, a mediocre line, and an even worse QB. Their defense might be good, but we haven't really had a chance to see yet: they gave up lots of points, lots of big runs, to Cal, another spread team with tiny quickish guys. (Cal proceeded to thwomp another minor team, then get crushed by lowly Maryland of the quasi-mid-major ACC.) They held Eastern Michigan to an expectedly low score. They shut out FAU, which would have been impressive minus the monsoon. If Michigan contains Ringer and gets to Hoyer, expect a Michigan victory, especially at home. The offense will be a lot better by then, barring more O-line injuries. *panickedly knocking on wood*
Illinois is still Illinois. Same inconsistent, great-talent, poor-execution team. Michigan's never yet struggled with Juice Williams, and I doubt that they start now. And this year, there's no Mendenhall. The Illini D has not played impressively, and that might spell trouble against a steadily improving Michigan offense at the Big House. I outright predict a Michigan victory here.
Thus, I predict that our bowl chances may very well rest on our beating Michigan State, and I give us even chances from what I've seen so far.
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